Driven by geopolitical reconfigurations, tourism investment in the Global South is shifting from volume-based expansion to risk-centric decision-making. This study synthesizes institutional theory, the resource-based view, and the Social License to Operate (SLO) to assess this transition. Leveraging panel data from 18 Belt and Road countries (2019–2024), we construct an assessment system across three dimensions: institutional quality, macroeconomic stability, and developmental maturity. Using the entropy weight method, we identify a distinct risk gradient: Africa exhibits the highest risk intensity, followed by Central Asia and Central and Eastern Europe, with Southeast Asia being the most stable. Exchange rate volatility and political instability emerge as primary systemic drivers, though Southeast Asia shows consistent risk abatement. Finally, we operationalize a "risk-capability-strategy" framework, proposing differentiated regional allocation strategies to navigate the Global South’s evolving investment landscape