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ECONOMIC GROWTH, FDI AND TRADE OPENNESS: CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR UZBEKISTAN
Ul Haq Ihtisham , Golestan Zeinabsadat

This study examines the causality between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, and trade openness in Uzbekistan over the period 1997-2023. Based on the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, it is concluded that all of the variables are integrated of order one, or I(1). Johansen cointegration test also confirms the existence of at least two long-run cointegrating vector among the variables in question. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to examine causality in both the short and long run. The results illustrate a bi-directional relationship between FDI, economic growth, and trade openness in both time frames. These findings are suggestive of the reality that policies of trade liberalization and investment climate can stimulate economic growth, FDI inflows, and trade growth concurrently. The paper presents practical policy implications for ensuring Uzbekistan's macroeconomic stability and long-run development via a coordinated trade and investment policy.

06/24/2025
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604-612 141 145
ENERGY DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL ASIAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS (1990–2024)
Indira Khadjieva

This study examines the determinants of economic growth across five Central Asian transition economies; Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan; over the period 1990–2024, with particular focus on the role of energy consumption. Using a panel dataset of 170 observations drawn from World Bank indicators, the analysis integrates energy consumption, financial development, industrialization, and trade openness into a unified panel data framework. Given a non-standard Hausman test result stemming from high intra-class correlation, the fixed-effects model is adopted as the preferred specification on theoretical grounds, with random-effects estimates reported for comparative transparency. The fixed-effects results reveal that financial development is the strongest and most consistent driver of within-country GDP per capita growth, followed by industrialization measured by manufacturing value-added. Energy consumption exerts a significant positive effect, consistent with the growth hypothesis of the energy-growth nexus, though its modest coefficient suggests diminishing returns within countries over time. Trade openness, by contrast, is negatively associated with GDP per capita, reflecting the adverse consequences of poorly sequenced liberalization in economies with limited institutional capacity and export diversification. These findings contribute original empirical evidence on the energy-growth nexus in the post-Soviet Central Asian context, offering policy-relevant insights for financial sector deepening, industrial upgrading, energy efficiency investment, and strategic trade integration across the region

05/23/2026
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210-223 30 26
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