The article analyzes the dynamics of the main economic indicators of the trade sector of the Bukhara region in 2012-2023. Based on the trend analysis of socio-economic indicators of the dynamics of trading activity, a generalized complex forecast model has been developed and optimistic and pessimistic forecast scenarios for 2025-2027 have been developed.
This article analyzes the future scenarios of regional socio-economic development in the context of forming an innovation economy, grounded in scientific evidence. The introduction outlines contemporary trends (digital transformation, artificial intelligence, green technologies, and climate change), while the literature review is based on several scholarly research works from prestigious journals over the past five years, encompassing the evolution of RIS (regional innovation systems), empirical models, and policy recommendations. The methodology relies on systematic literature review (SLR) and scenario planning. The results delineate three scenarios: optimistic (2–5% growth through digital integration), pessimistic (inequality and stagnation), and mixed (transformative adaptation). The conclusion proposes strengthening RIS and investing in green innovations
