ENERGY DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL ASIAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS (1990–2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp210-223Abstract
This study examines the determinants of economic growth across five Central Asian transition economies; Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan; over the period 1990–2024, with particular focus on the role of energy consumption. Using a panel dataset of 170 observations drawn from World Bank indicators, the analysis integrates energy consumption, financial development, industrialization, and trade openness into a unified panel data framework. Given a non-standard Hausman test result stemming from high intra-class correlation, the fixed-effects model is adopted as the preferred specification on theoretical grounds, with random-effects estimates reported for comparative transparency. The fixed-effects results reveal that financial development is the strongest and most consistent driver of within-country GDP per capita growth, followed by industrialization measured by manufacturing value-added. Energy consumption exerts a significant positive effect, consistent with the growth hypothesis of the energy-growth nexus, though its modest coefficient suggests diminishing returns within countries over time. Trade openness, by contrast, is negatively associated with GDP per capita, reflecting the adverse consequences of poorly sequenced liberalization in economies with limited institutional capacity and export diversification. These findings contribute original empirical evidence on the energy-growth nexus in the post-Soviet Central Asian context, offering policy-relevant insights for financial sector deepening, industrial upgrading, energy efficiency investment, and strategic trade integration across the region
Keywords:
economic growth energy consumption financial development industrialization trade openness Central Asia panel data fixed-effects model transition economiesReferences
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