ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE LEVEL OF INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

Abstract

This article presents the results of an econometric assessment of the impact of investment intensity and the share of finished-goods exports on the industrialization level of the national economy. After comparing several alternative specifications, a final two-factor model with a break variable was selected, with a coefficient of determination of 0.90. Analysis of individual coefficients shows that most of the variation in the industrialization level is explained by the 2017 regulatory regime change, while the investment and export coefficients do not reach conventional significance thresholds. The results of the error correction model, Granger causality test, bounds cointegration test, Chow structural stability test, CUSUM test, and retrospective forecast check corroborate the model's conclusions from multiple angles. The findings empirically substantiate that the effectiveness of industrial policy depends not on the volume of instruments but on the institutional structure.